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Cosmos Study

Pandemic Pounds Are Real for Kids

Abstract: Pediatric patients exceeding expected weight gain increased 41% during the pandemic.
August 2, 2021
Dual-Team Study
Team A:Brad Fox, MDJoe McNittLily Rubin-Miller, MPH
Team B:Christopher Alban, MD, MBAXander Posner, MPH

We examined 5,358,498 pediatric patient records to determine whether the patients gained more weight than expected during the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that prior to the pandemic, 23.9% of pediatric patients were above their expected weight while during the pandemic period, 33.8% of pediatric patients were above their expected weight, a 41% increase from the pre-pandemic period.

Pediatric patients are expected to gain weight following typical growth curves. We compared the expected weight gain to actual weight gain and represented the difference as a change in Z-score to normalize the measure. A change in Z-score of zero means the patient is gaining weight as expected. A negative Z-score change means a patient has gained less weight than expected, and a positive Z-score change indicates greater weight gain than expected. Figure 1 shows the percentage of pediatric patients whose weight changed by a larger amount than expected, a smaller amount than expected, or the same amount as expected, based on relevant CDC growth curve data sets.

Figure 1
Year-to-Year Weight Change Among Pediatric Patients
Year-to-Year Weight Change Among Pediatric Patients
Figure 1. Weight change by year for pediatric patients. The green bars represent the two measurement periods before the COVID-19 pandemic, and the orange bars represent the pandemic measurement period.

We found nearly 1 in 10 pediatric patients gained more weight than expected during the pandemic compared to the year prior. This differs from what we found for adults, who were equally likely to gain or lose weight during the pandemic.1


These data come from Cosmos, a HIPAA Limited Data Set of more than 112 million patients from Epic customers. This study was completed by two teams, comprised of clinicians and data scientists, which independently acquired and analyzed data. Overall, the two teams came to similar conclusions. Data are pooled from 105 healthcare organizations representing 536 hospitals and 9,074 clinics.

References

  1. Alban C, Fox B, Posner X, Rubin-Miller L; Pandemic Pound Theories Don’t Hold Weight. EHRN.org. 2 July 2021. https://ehrn.org/articles/pandemic-pound-theories-dont-hold-weight