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Cosmos Study

Progestin-Only Birth Control Linked to Lower Likelihood of New Migraine Diagnoses

December 18, 2025
Dual-Team Study
Team A:Kersten Bartelt, RNNicholas Volker
Team B:Christopher Alban, MDGrant Keane

Key Findings

  • Women who were prescribed progestin-only birth control were less likely to be diagnosed with migraines compared to those not using hormonal contraception.
  • The likelihood of reduction in migraine diagnosis varied by contraceptive method: 24% lower for intrauterine implant, 18% lower for oral medication, and 15% lower for intramuscular injection.

Migraines affect many women of reproductive age, and hormone changes are known triggers. While clinical guidance often considers migraine history when prescribing estrogen-containing birth control,1 much less is known about how hormonal contraception might influence the initial onset of migraines. Understanding whether progestin-only birth control affects the likelihood of newly being diagnosed with migraines provides important context for contraceptive counseling.

We studied more than 2 million patients aged 15 to 49. We matched patients newly diagnosed with migraines between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2023, with patients who had an office visit in the same month and who were of similar age, race, ethnicity, and hypertension status. We also accounted for social vulnerability and rurality based on residence, BMI classification, smoking history, prior pregnancy, and census region in our analysis. We ended the study period at the end of 2023 because oral contraceptives became available over the counter in 2024,2 reducing our ability to reliably identify users.

We found that patients who used intrauterine progestin-only birth control were 24% less likely to have migraines diagnosed within two years compared to patients without a history of birth control use, as seen in Figure 1. Similarly, patients who were on oral progestin-only birth control were 18% less likely to be diagnosed with migraines within two years, those who were on intramuscular progestin-only birth control were 15% less likely, and those on other routes were 13% less likely.

Figure 1
Migraine Likelihood on Progestin-Only Birth Control
Migraine Likelihood on Progestin-Only Birth Control
Figure 1. The likelihood of a novel migraine diagnosis in women prescribed progestin-only birth control by route.

Because this study included only individuals without prior migraines, the findings reflect association with new diagnoses rather than migraine progression.


These data come from Cosmos, a dataset created in collaboration with a community of Epic health systems representing more than 300 million patient records from 1,800 hospitals and more than 41,000 clinics from all 50 U.S. states, Canada, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia. This study was completed by two teams that worked independently, each composed of a clinician and research scientists. The two teams came to similar conclusions. Graphics by Brian Olson.

References

  1. MacGregor EA. Migraine and use of combined hormonal contraceptives: a clinical review. J Fam Plann Reprod Health Care. 2007;33(3):159-169. doi:10.1783/147118907781004750
  2. FDA approves first nonprescription daily oral contraceptive. U.S. Food and Drug Administration. August 9, 2024. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-nonprescription-daily-oral-contraceptive. Accessed December 11, 2025.

Data Definitions

Study period
Study population: inclusion
Study population: exclusion
Index event
Exposures
Outcomes
Confounders
Outpatient face-to-face visit
Matched Patient
Progestin-only birth control
Race and ethnicity
Model specifications
Limitations