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Cosmos Study

Summer Scrapes and Autumn Concussions: Pediatric Head Injuries Show Distinct Seasonal Trends

July 16, 2026
Dual-Team Study
Team A:Kersten Bartelt, RNJoe Deckert, PhD
Team B:Jeff Trinkl, MDNicholas Volker

Key Findings

  • Concussion diagnoses among children show a strong seasonal pattern that is most pronounced in older adolescent age groups. Among children aged 14–18, the 2025 monthly rate peaked in October at 1,105 per 100,000 compared to 331 per 100,000 in July.
  • Superficial head injuries followed a different seasonal cycle, peaking in late spring and early summer rather than fall, and were most common in the youngest children. In 2025, rates among children aged 0–4 peaked in July at 1,211 per 100,000, the highest of any group.
  • Males were consistently diagnosed with both concussions and superficial head injuries more often than females in most periods studied.

A concussion is a mild traumatic brain injury caused by a blow or jolt to the head that can affect how the brain functions, and it’s a particularly common injury among children who participate in sports.¹ Superficial head injuries, such as cuts and abrasions to the scalp and face, are also a common reason children seek care.² Prior work has described seasonal variation in pediatric injuries and a concentration of sports-related concussions during the academic year,³ but less is known about how the timing and magnitude of these patterns differ across pediatric age groups, between injury types, and by sex. Understanding when different head injuries cluster across the year can help health systems anticipate demand and target prevention and counseling efforts.

We studied more than 58 million pediatric patients with visits between January 2017 and February 2026 to understand patterns in visits for concussions and superficial head injuries. To avoid counting the same injury more than once, additional concussion-related diagnoses within 90 days of an initial event were treated as part of the same event.

In 2025, children aged 14–18 had the most pronounced pattern, with the monthly rate climbing to 1,105 per 100,000 in October compared to 331 per 100,000 in July, as shown in Figure 1. Children aged 10–13 followed a similar seasonal trend in concussion diagnoses, while the two youngest groups account for a much smaller proportion and varied far less across the year. The concentration of older-child concussions in the fall is consistent with prior reports linking pediatric concussion to the academic and athletic calendar.³

Figure 1
Concussions per One Hundred Thousand Pediatric Patients by Age in 2025
Concussions per One Hundred Thousand Pediatric Patients by Age in 2025
Figure 1. The rate of concussion diagnoses per 100,000 patients by age group in 2025.

The seasonal timing of concussion was similar for males and females, but males were diagnosed at consistently higher rates, especially at the seasonal peak. Both sexes peaked in October and reached their lowest rates in midsummer, indicating a shared underlying cycle. The average October peak for males between 2017 and 2025 reached about 591 per 100,000 compared to about 355 per 100,000 for females, a gap that narrowed during the summer when the two rates were nearly equal. The widening of the male-female difference specifically at the fall peak suggests that the activities driving the seasonal surge are more common among, or carry higher concussion risk for, male children.

Figure 2
Concussions per One Hundred Thousand Pediatric Patients by Sex
Concussions per One Hundred Thousand Pediatric Patients by Sex
Figure 2. The rate of concussion diagnoses for patients aged 0–18 per 100,000 patients stratified by patient sex.

In contrast, superficial head injuries were most common in the early summer months and in the youngest age groups, reaching a peak of 1,211 per 100,000 among children aged 0–4 in July 2025.

Figure 3
Superficial Head Injuries per One Hundred Thousand Pediatric Patients by Age in 2025
Superficial Head Injuries per One Hundred Thousand Pediatric Patients by Age in 2025
Figure 3. The rate of superficial head injury diagnoses per 100,000 patients by age group in 2025.

Like concussion diagnoses, males were more commonly diagnosed with superficial head injuries than females, but this trend remained more consistent throughout the year.

Figure 4
Superficial Head Injuries per One Hundred Thousand Pediatric Patients by Sex
Superficial Head Injuries per One Hundred Thousand Pediatric Patients by Sex
Figure 4. The rate of superficial head injury diagnoses for patients aged 0–18 per 100,000 patients stratified by patient sex.

These data come from Cosmos, a dataset created in collaboration with a community of Epic health systems representing more than 307 million patient records from 2,000 hospitals and more than 49,000 clinics from all 50 U.S. states, Canada, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia. This study was completed by two teams that worked independently, each composed of a clinician and research scientist. The two teams came to similar conclusions. Graphics by Brian Olson.

References

  1. About Mild TBI and Concussion. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/traumatic-brain-injury/about/index.html. Accessed June 10, 2026.
  2. Zogg CK, Haring RS, Xu L, et al. The Epidemiology of Pediatric Head Injury Treated Outside of Hospital Emergency Departments. Epidemiology. 2018;29(2):269-279. doi:10.1097/EDE.0000000000000791
  3. Bryan MA, Rowhani-Rahbar A, Comstock RD, Rivara F; Seattle Sports Concussion Research Collaborative. Sports- and Recreation-Related Concussions in US Youth. Pediatrics. 2016;138(1):e20154635. doi:10.1542/peds.2015-4635

Data Definitions

Study period
Study population: inclusion
Censoring / event deduplication
Outcomes
Stratifications
Model specifications
Qualifying encounter
Limitations