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Cosmos Study

Total Firearm Injuries Decline to Pre-Pandemic Levels, But Disparities Persist Across Populations

October 29, 2025
Dual-Team Study
Team A:Kersten Bartelt, RNEmily Higgs
Team B:Christopher Alban, MDJoe Deckert, PhD

Key Findings

  • Total firearm injury rates nearly doubled during the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at 1.8 per 1,000 emergency department (ED) visits in Q2 2020. These rates have since dropped and reached pre-pandemic levels by Q4 2023.
  • Firearm injury rates vary substantially by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, with persistently high rates among young Black and Hispanic males. Disparities observed have widened over time.
  • The highest rates are among Black males aged 13 to 34, and elevated rates are also sustained among Black females and Hispanic males in multiple age groups.

We previously reported a more than 70% increase in firearm injuries during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with disproportionate impacts on young Black and Hispanic men.1 We aimed to assess whether those pandemic-era surges have changed or maintained in recent years.

We studied the rate of firearm-related injury across more than 183 million emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. between Q1 2018 and Q2 2025. Firearm injury diagnoses covered accidental, intentional, assault, undetermined, legal, and terrorism-related injuries.

Firearm injury rates rose sharply in Q2 2020 to 1.8 per 1,000 ED visits, doubling the Q2 2018 rate (0.9 per 1,000 ED visits). Rates declined in many quarters since and reached pre-pandemic levels by Q4 2023.

Figure 1
Firearm Injury ED Visit Rates
Firearm Injury ED Visit Rates
Figure 1. Firearm injury rates per 1,000 ED visits by quarter.

Firearm injury rates varied dramatically across age, sex, and racial/ethnic groups, with the highest rates concentrated among Black and Hispanic males aged 13 to 34. Black males aged 18 to 24 consistently experienced the highest injury rates. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, rates in this group remained below 15 per 1,000 ED visits in each quarter. However, rates in this group peaked at 25 per 1,000 ED visits in Q2 2020 and remained above 15 per 1,000 in many quarters since. Hispanic males in the same age group also had elevated rates during the pandemic, with a peak of 8.5 per 1,000 ED visits in Q3 2020, though rates have returned to pre-pandemic levels since.

Firearm injury rates also rose among female patients, particularly Black females aged 13 to 24, whose rates doubled during the pandemic and then declined some before stabilizing at levels higher than before 2020. However, firearm injury rates for Black females remain substantially lower than their male counterparts of the same age.

Figure 2
Firearm Injury ED Visit Rates by Demographics
Firearm Injury ED Visit Rates by Demographics
Figure 2. Firearm injury rates per 1,000 ED visits by demographics and quarter.

These data come from Cosmos, a dataset created in collaboration with a community of Epic health systems representing more than 300 million patient records from 17,800 hospitals and more than 41,000 clinics from all 50 U.S. states, Canada, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia. This study was completed by two teams that worked independently, each composed of a clinician and research scientists. The two teams came to similar conclusions. Graphics by Brian Olson. 

References

  1. Bohochik R, Lin L, Lindgren E, Thayer J, Teriakidis A. 2020 Firearm Injuries Up More Than 70%–Worse in Black and Hispanic Young Men. Epic Research. https://epicresearch.org/articles/2020-firearm-injuries-up-more-than-70-worse-in-black-and-hispanic-young-men. Accessed on September 3, 2025.

Data Definitions

Study period
Study population: inclusion
Exposures
Outcomes
Race and ethnicity