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Cosmos Study

Women, Particularly Those Without Diabetes, More at Risk of Undiagnosed Chronic Kidney Disease

February 27, 2025
Dual-Team Study
Team A:Kersten Bartelt, RNSimon KirkseyEmily Higgs
Team B:Karen Wong, MDAaron HuberJoe Deckert, PhD

Key Findings

  • Female patients, particularly those without diabetes, are at the highest risk of undiagnosed chronic kidney disease (CKD), with 20% showing lab evidence of CKD stage 3 or higher but lacking a formal diagnosis. 
  • Of patients who have diagnosed CKD, nearly 40% are diagnosed with a lower stage than what their lab values indicate (for example, a patient’s labs indicate stage 5 while their diagnosis is stage 4), which could delay treatment. 

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive condition characterized by declining kidney function. It is often undetected until later stages when dialysis or kidney failure becomes imminent.1 An estimated 35.5 million U.S. adults have CKD, yet many remain undiagnosed, partly due to asymptomatic early stages and inconsistent screening practices.1 Identifying CKD early can mitigate the risk of cardiovascular disease, acute kidney injury, and progression to kidney failure.2 Despite these benefits, missed and discordant CKD diagnoses remain common.1 CKD staging for stages 3a and greater are based on the patient’s estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), with lower values indicating higher stages of CKD.3 

We examined how often patients whose eGFR levels indicate they have stage 3 or higher CKD do not have a documented CKD diagnosis. We studied 681,583 patients with multiple creatinine labs at least 90 days apart whose calculated eGFR classified them as stage 3 or higher. Patients diagnosed with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or those with a kidney transplant were excluded from this study, as transplant or dialysis procedures can interfere with eGFR values. 

We found that, while most patients had a CKD diagnosis documented when their eGFR results reflect CKD, females were nearly twice as likely to be undiagnosed as males, as seen in Figure 1. The highest undiagnosed rate was among women without diabetes (20.0%). 

Figure 1
CKD Diagnosis Rate Among Patients Whose eGFR Indicates Stage 3 or Higher CKD
CKD Diagnosis Rate Among Patients Whose eGFR Indicates Stage 3 or Higher CKD
Figure 1. The rate of having a CKD diagnosis among patients whose eGFR results indicate they have stage 3 CKD or higher. 

Next, we evaluated how often the stage of the CKD diagnosis differed from the stage indicated by a patient’s eGFR results. We found that most patients have a diagnosed stage that matches their calculated stage, as seen in Figure 2. Patients classified as stage 5 were the least likely to have a staged diagnosis that matched their calculated stage. However, there were comparatively few patients with an eGFR indicating stage 5, and the exclusion of patients diagnosed with ESRD or who have had a transplant may disproportionately affect the rates observed among the stage 5 population. 

Figure 2
Rate of CKD Diagnosis Aligning with Labs
Rate of CKD Diagnosis Aligning with Labs
Figure 2. The rate of patients with a staged CKD diagnosis that aligns with their eGFR level’s stage.  

These data come from Cosmos, a dataset created in collaboration with a community of Epic health systems representing more than 295 million patient records from 1,600 hospitals and more than 37,000 clinics from all 50 states, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia. This study was completed by two teams that worked independently, each composed of a clinician and research scientists. The two teams came to similar conclusions. Graphics by Brian Olson. 

References

  1. Chronic kidney disease in the United States, 2023. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. May 15, 2024. https://www.cdc.gov/kidney-disease/php/data-research/index.html?. Accessed January 30, 2025. 
  2. Fraser SD, Blakeman T. Chronic kidney disease: identification and management in primary care. Pragmat Obs Res. 2016;7:21-32. Published 2016 Aug 17. doi:10.2147/POR.S97310 
  3. Testing for Chronic Kidney Disease. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. May 15, 2024. https://www.cdc.gov/kidney-disease/testing/index.html. Accessed February 6, 2025. 

Data Definitions

Study period
Study population – inclusion criteria
Study population – exclusion criteria
Outcomes
Stratifications
Creatinine lab
Kidney Transplant
ESRD
Undiagnosed CKD
Diagnosis-lab mismatched CKD
Type 2 diabetes
AKI
Calculated CKD stage
Diagnosed CKD stage
eGFR